Installment 4 featuring Manny Machado came via request. He is struggling a little bit this year and I wanted to see if maybe we could figure out why. First, lets take a look at the swing.
2016 swing:
2017 swing:
I don’t think the issue is his swing. I don’t see a difference at all between the two years. He looks to be standing just a tad bit taller this year, but the core of his swing is still very much there. Let’s take a look at his hot zones.
2016 hot zone Batting Average:
2016 hot zone Slugging:
2017 hot zone Batting Average:
2017 hot zone Slugging:
The difference in Machados’ hot zones for the last two years is pretty stark. In 2016, anything out and over the plate was a dangerous area to pitch to Machado. This year, he isn’t hitting the ball up hardly at all, and definitely not like he did in 2016. We do see that he is hitting pitches both down and in with more pop in 2017 than he did in the past. This may have something to do with him being just a tad bit taller (in his setup) this year. The more upright you are the more leverage you will have on a pitch that is down in the zone. Then again, it may not.
Another thing that is important to take into account is that Machado has had a wrist injury this year, on his left side. Injuries are tricky and we can never be sure how much of an effect they might be having on an athlete. However I was curious about his stats before and after the injury. I checked into it and he has been hitting in the same range all year, so the injury may not be the factor either.
So what exactly is the factor?! Take a look at this stat.
Manny Machado BABIP (batting average on balls in play)
2016: .309
2017: .223
And this one:
Average exit velocity:
2016: 90.3
2017: 93.1
Well that seems to explain at least some of it. Machado is hitting the ball harder this year, he is just not being rewarded for it. He is at least in the top 20 in exit velocity, but not anywhere close to that in many of the conventional statistics.
So is anything wrong with Machado? I don’t think so. I expect his stats to go back up to more Machadoesque numbers in the second half of the season. Remember that time Cano had a really bad first half? Yeah me too. He seems to be okay now. Sometimes bad luck strikes, and it appears Machado is the victim of it so far this year.
Thanks for reading! There will be no daily hitters made over the weekend. Look for installment 5 on Monday.